Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2013

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.  相似文献   

The MW 6.9 14 April 2010 Yushu Earthquake and a 10,000-Year Record of Paleoseismicity along the Guoqiong Segment of the Yushu Fault,Qinghai Province, China     

Taylor F. ARMSTRONG  Mervin J. BARTHOLOMEW  FENG Lian  LI Dewei  LIU Demin  Tammy RITTENOUR  SUN Guoqiang 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):329-330

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青藏高原地震活动及其构造背景   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

艾印双  郑天愉 《地球物理学进展》1997,12(2):30-40

青藏高原是大陆范围内地质作用最活跃的地区。十分强烈的地震活动，清楚显示了以大区域构造为背景的整体性活动特征。在青藏高原的大地构造格局中来研究地震活动和震源性质的变化规律，是认识高原构造活动状态、规律、起因的重要部分。为此，本文综述了近些年该地区地震活动、震源性质、速度结构、地质构造及高原隆起机理的研究。  相似文献   

日本发生中强地震的灰色预测          下载免费PDF全文

王秀文  赵丽华  谭勇  陈大业 《地震工程学报》1995,17(1):91-95

本文应用灰色控制系统理论,选取１９８０年１月至１９８８年１２月日本的地震序列资料,将（６．０,７．０）级地震作为样本,建立了预报地震发震时刻的动态模型,并选取最佳模型对日本未未来发生中强地震的时间进行了预测,另外,从函数变换的观点,对ＧＭ（１,１）模型进行了广义解释,指出对序列建模必须从满足光滑度的时刻计起。通过大量计算表明,用足够小量样本比大量样本建模,其拟合与外推精度要高。。对此,从信息论的角  相似文献   

我国商业保险公司未经营地震保险之原因与对策   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈宏 《东北地震研究》2004,20(3):76-80

我国作为世界上地震灾害损失最重的国家之一，应有比较完备的防灾救灾措施，但至今仍主要靠政府救济，不仅使国家财政不堪重负，而且赔偿率也很低。可见，采取有效措施减少震害已迫在眉睫，商业地震保险将由此而应运而生。本文从我国地震灾情入手，深刻剖析了我国商业保险公司未经营地震保险的原因，并针对问题提出了解决措施。  相似文献   

地震预报的证据理论方法          下载免费PDF全文

石雅鏐  周民都  张晓东  宁书年 《地震工程学报》2004,26(4):289-292

概率论和数理统计方法一直是地震预报中处理不确定性的主要方法，但在很多情况下并不是特别有效。本引进了一种新的不确定性处理方法一证据理论方法，介绍了如何用该理论表达地震预报问题。讨论了应用其D-S合成规则进行预报的一般过程，并根据地震综合预报的特点，提出了加权的D-S规则。研究结果表明，证据理论应用于地震预报有其独特的优点。  相似文献   

In-plane response of two-story structures to near-fault ground motion     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2013

Linear and non-linear responses of a two-story structural model excited by near-source fault-normal pulse and fault-parallel displacement are investigated. For the considered linear system, the multi-component differential-motion effects amplify the first-story drifts 3.0–4.0 times relative to the excitation by synchronous horizontal ground motion only. The contribution of horizontal differential ground motion to the total drift is about two thirds, and the contribution of vertical and rocking differential ground motions is about one third. For the considered nonlinear system, the effects of vertical and rocking differential ground motions become more significant for the second-story drifts. The horizontal differential ground motion amplifies the first-story drifts, but the simultaneous action of horizontal, vertical, and rocking differential ground motions can amplify the first- and second-story drifts by more than 2.0 times relative to the drifts computed for uniform horizontal ground motion only.  相似文献   

Ant colony optimization of tuned mass dampers for earthquake oscillations of high-rise structures including soil–structure interaction     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2013

This paper investigates the optimized parameters for tuned mass dampers (TMDs) to decrease the earthquake vibrations of tall buildings; involving soil–structure interaction (SSI) effects. The time domain analysis based on Newmark method is employed in this study. To illustrate the results, Tabas and Kobe earthquakes data are applied to the model, and ant colony optimization (ACO) method is utilized to obtain the best parameters for TMD. The TMD mass, damping coefficient and spring stiffness are assumed as design variables, and the objective is to reduce both the maximum displacement and acceleration of stories. It is shown that how the ACO can be effectively applied to design the optimum TMD device. It is also indicated that the soil type greatly affects the TMD optimized parameters and the time response of structures. This study helps the researchers to better understanding of earthquake vibrations, and leads the designers to achieve the optimized TMD for high-rise buildings.  相似文献   

静乐井水位前驱重现性问题探讨     

张淑亮  刘瑞春  吕芳 《中国地震研究》2013,27(2):205-222

以山西静乐井为研究对象,对井水位前驱波重现性问题进行了探讨。结果表明,相似地震前前驱波起始时间和波动周期在一定范围内具有较强的重现性,其比例可达63.1%;部分相似地震前前驱波波动形态和波动幅度也存在一定的相似性,但在研究范围内前驱波各项特征均相似的地震尚未发现,其原因可能与前驱波的成因、传播途径、相似地震的震源区特征等因素有关。  相似文献   

岷县漳县6.6级地震发震构造与区域地形地貌特征关系讨论          下载免费PDF全文

葛伟鹏 《地震工程学报》2013,35(4):840-847

为了清晰认识岷县漳县6.6级地震的发震构造环境和区域地貌特征,本文利用DEM（数字高程模型）数据分析了甘东南地区的地形地貌基本特征,结合区域活动断裂分布及其运动学特征讨论了岷县漳县6.6级地震所处在的青藏高原东北缘的区域构造环境和地壳运动学特征,研究了甘肃东南部的基本构造环境、发震断裂的断裂活动性及孕震过程等基本发震条件.主要利用地形剖面方法分析了通过地震震源区的地貌特征,反映出区域地形地貌特征与发震构造的关系,从地貌学角度探讨了区域中上地壳变形特征及孕震过程.最后讨论了区域发震构造、地球动力学背景,通过地形剖面及区域地貌分析了岷县漳县6.6级地震发震构造特点,认为此次地震可能与汶川地震的同震及震后变形过程相关.  相似文献